The Race No One Predicted

For those of us who are political junkies the last couple months have been a riot.

The 2008 Presidential Race has been flipped upside down. Hillary is struggling. Obama is surging. Rudy is missing. Romney is rising. And, Huckabee is soaring.

How the heck did all this happen?

A few months ago I was one of those who firmly believed this was a New York showdown: Hillary vs Rudy. And, the odds on favorite for victory was Mrs. Clinton. She had the organization, the advisers, the experience, and Bill on her side. Plus, she offered something different for all those people desperate for a major change from The Bush Years.

But, now she doesn't appear such a safe bet. And, Rudy has Struggled, to be put it mildly.

Why did all of this change?

How did Huckabee catch fire?

When did Mitt become a major player?

And, why is Obama suddenly a contender.

My theory is these two words: Iraq & Terrorism.

The news cycle has been nearly absent of Iraq and terrorism stories for the last three months. On KTAR-FM, it's rare now that ABC News leads one of our hourly newscasts with a story out of Baghdad. If there is a story, it's positive.

Wow, what a change.

And, is it just me or has the nation's sensitivity to terrorism completely changed? Do you think about a possible terrorist attack as much today as you did a year ago? The media doesn't. Osama has released two audio tapes in the last two months and they've been ignored. I bet you don't even know what he said in either one of them.

So, Iraq is going better. Much better. And, the negativity-obsessed media has vacated the story. Try logging onto the websites for The New York Times, The Washington Post, or CNN right now and look for an Iraq story. You'll have to look. They're hard to find. When things go well, we in the media become bored and turn our attention to other things.

With terrorism and Iraq off our front pages, the political climate has completely changed. The candidates that benefited from those issues in the forefront are losing ground, and the contenders are actually, contending.

Who would have thought the final month before Iowa would have been dominated by stories about the Bible and Christianity? And, so Huckabee and Romney are gaining. And, Obama has a chance.

The footnote to this whole argument is how quickly this can change. Several bad weeks in Iraq or one major explosion by radicals can turn the race another direction.

And, that's what makes politics so interesting.

Comments

[Dale in Mesa]

God KTAR sucks since it went RightWingNuttia. Listening to the NH primary "coverage" last night was excruciating -- grown men chortling like 5 year olds that Hillary "cried her way to victory."

Are your hosts really that stupid? Of course not, they just lack balls for real views and instead pander to the lowest common denominator of Republican knuckle-dragger (Pat McMahon excepted.)

Why listen to KFYI Lite when I could listen to the real thing?

[Beth McEldowney]

Or is it maybe that people didn't bother to really pay attention until it got closer. It was the media who decided it was Hillary/Rudy. Now that people are getting closer to actually having to vote, they are paying attention. If only the media had given all the candidates attention from the start, including the "fringe" candidates of Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Paul, even McCain for awhile.

[bill dunlap]

Apparently, your one of the many to fall victim to the lack of real news in the country. If you were paying attention, Rudy was that close to being the worse Mayor in N.Y.C. history before 9/11 happened. Anyone within ear shot of N.Y.C. new of how bad of an elected offical he was. Its to bad nothing of importance is being written about, and what you hear for news is only what big business and the government lets you hear. Do a little research, and you'll see what I mean.